Posted: November 27, 2018 | Tradewinds
WASHINGTON, Nov. 27— Estimated October construction unemployment rates fell nationally and in 45 states on a year-over-year basis, according to an analysis of U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data released today by Associated Builders and Contractors.
While the October 2018 not seasonally adjusted national construction unemployment rate fell 0.9 percent from a year ago to 3.6 percent, the construction industry employed 318,000 more workers nationally compared to October 2017, according to BLS statistics.
“Construction activity and hiring of construction workers continued to be healthy in most of the nation,” said Bernard M. Markstein, Ph.D., president and chief economist of Markstein Advisors, who conducted the analysis for ABC. “Warmer than normal temperatures in the eastern part of the country, coupled with recovery efforts from Hurricanes Florence and Michael, added to overall construction activity. The result was lower unemployment rates compared to a year ago in 45 states and higher rates in Colorado, Hawaii and South Dakota, with Florida and Kansas unchanged. Further, the country and 22 states posted their lowest October construction unemployment rates on record.”
Because these industry-specific rates are not seasonally adjusted, national and state-level unemployment rates are best evaluated on a year-over-year basis. The monthly movement of the rates still provides some information, although extra care must be used in drawing conclusions from these variations.
The national NSA construction unemployment rate from September to October fell 0.5 percent. Only four states posted higher estimated construction unemployment rates; 42 states were down from September and four were unchanged.
The Top Five States
The states with the lowest estimated NSA construction unemployment rates in order from lowest to highest were:
- Iowa, 1.3 percent
- Utah, 1.7 percent
- Vermont, 1.8 percent
- North Dakota (tied), 2 percent
- Wyoming (tied), 2 percent
Three of these states—North Dakota, Utah and Vermont—were in the top five in September.
Iowa, which shot up from tied with Missouri for 12th lowest in September, had the lowest construction unemployment rate in October at 1.3 percent, the state’s lowest October rate on record. Along with Wyoming, it had the second largest monthly drop, down 2.1 percent.
Utah had the second lowest rate in October, down from the lowest rate in September, even as its rate fell 0.5 percent from that month. It was the state’s second lowest October construction unemployment rate on record since falling to 1.6 percent in 2007.
Vermont had the third lowest rate in October, up from fourth lowest in September. That was the state’s lowest October construction unemployment rate on record.
North Dakota and Wyoming tied for the fourth lowest rate in October. For North Dakota, that was down from second lowest rate in September (tied with Georgia), even as its rate decreased 0.5 percent from that month. For Wyoming, that was an improvement from 20th lowest rate and the state’s lowest October rate since hitting 1.6 percent in 2006. The state also tied with Iowa for the second largest monthly decline—down 2.1 percent.
Georgia, which tied with North Dakota for second lowest rate in September, slipped to sixth lowest rate in October with a 2.4 percent rate (tied with Idaho). Nevertheless, it was the state’s lowest October rate on record.
North Carolina, which had the fifth lowest construction unemployment rate in September, dropped to 12th lowest in October with a rate of 2.9 percent, tied with Virginia. It was still the state’s lowest October rate on record.
The Bottom Five States
The states with the highest estimated NSA construction unemployment rates in order from lowest to highest were:
46. Connecticut, 5.5 percent
47. Arkansas (tied), 5.6 percent
48. Kentucky (tied), 5.6 percent
49. Mississippi, 7 percent
50. Alaska, 9.6 percent
Alaska and Mississippi were also in the bottom five in September.
Alaska had the highest estimated construction unemployment rate for the third consecutive month. This was the state’s lowest October rate since 2001, when it was 8.4 percent. It was also the state with the largest year-over-year decrease in its rate, down 5.7 percent.
Mississippi had the second highest rate for the third month in a row. It was the state’s lowest October rate since construction unemployment reached 6.8 percent rate in 2006.
Arkansas and Kentucky tied the third highest rate in October. For both states, that compared to seventh highest in September along with Rhode Island. For Arkansas, this was the state’s lowest October rate since the 5 percent rate in 2006. This was Kentucky’s lowest October rate since the 5.4 percent rate in 2007.
Connecticut had the fifth highest rate in October compared to 10th highest in September, tied with Illinois and Tennessee. It was the state’s lowest October rate since the 4.7 percent rate in 2001.
West Virginia and Maine, which had the third and fourth highest rates in September, respectively, improved to tied for eighth highest in October with a 5.1 percent rate. For West Virginia, it was the state’s lowest October rate since the 4.4 percent rate it posted in 2001. For Maine, it was the state’s lowest October rate since hitting 4.9 percent in 2001.
Hawaii, which only reports mining and construction employment combined, had the fifth highest construction unemployment rate in September but improved to the 24th highest rate in October with a 3.5 percent rate. The state had the largest monthly drop, down 2.3 percent. It was the state’s second lowest October rate since 2006, when it was 2.6 percent.
To better understand the basis for calculating unemployment rates and what they measure, see the article Background on State Construction Unemployment Rates.
Visit ABC Construction Economics for the Construction Backlog Indicator, Construction Confidence Index and state unemployment reports, plus analysis of spending, employment, GDP and the Producer Price Index.
Associated Builders and Contractors is a national construction industry trade association established in 1950 that represents more than 21,000 members. Founded on the merit shop philosophy, ABC and its 70 chapters help members develop people, win work and deliver that work safely, ethically and profitably for the betterment of the communities in which ABC and its members work. Visit us at abc.org.